Tesis

Model Prediksi Kejadian Drop out pada Pasien Pasien Penyakit Ginjal Kronik Stadium 5 dengan Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis = Prediction Model for Drop Out in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients with Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis.

Latar Belakang: Penggunaan PD hanya 2-11% dari total terapi pengganti ginjal, dengan angka drop out PD sebesar 35% setiap tahun. Faktor-faktor yang ingin diteliti yaitu faktor yang berpengaruh dengan kejadian drop out pada penderita penyakit ginjal kronik stadium 5 dengan Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis (CAPD) yaitu: usia, tingkat pendidikan, riwayat peritonitis, infeksi exit site dan/ tunnel, hipoalbumin, diabetes melitus, hipertensi, obesitas, hiperkalemia, teknik pemasangan, fungsi ginjal sisa, dan besarnya unit CAPD. Tujuan: Mempelajari pengaruh usia, tingkat pendidikan, peritonitis, infeksi exit site dan tunneling, hipoalbumin, hipokalemia, diabetes melitus, hipertensi, obesitas, tehnik pemasangan, penurunan fungsi ginjal sisa dan besarnya unit CAPD terhadap kejadian drop out pada penderita penyakit ginjal kronik stadium 5 dengan CAPD. Menghasilkan model prediksi kejadian drop out pada penderita penyakit ginjal kronik stadium 5 dengan CAPD. Metode Penelitian: Penelitian ini merupakan studi kohort retrospektif dengan subjek penelitian pasien dengan penyakit ginjal kronik stadium 5 dengan CAPD di RSUPN dr Cipto Mangunkusumo, RS Fatmawati dan RSUD Syamsudin SH periode Januari 201 7 hingga Mei 2023. Data diambil dari rekam medis, sesuai dengan kriteria inklusi dan eksklusi. Performa pengembangan model prediksi kejadian drop out dilakukan dengan menentukan nilai kalibrasi (uji Hosmer-Lameshow) dan diskriminasi. Hasil Penelitian: Didapatkan 293 pasien yang telah memenuhi kriteria dan dapat dianalisis. Dari hasil multivariat didapatkan usia mulai CAPD ≥ 55 tahun HR 1,687 (95% IK 1,095 – 2,598); p=0,018, diabetes melitus HR 1,497 (95% IK 1,005 – 2,229); p=0,047, fungsi ginjal sisa ≤ 200 ml HR 1,960 (95% IK 1,349 – 2,846); p= < 0,0001 dan hipoalbumin HR 1,510 (95% IK 1,046 – 2,180); p=0,028 bermakna mempengaruhi kejadian drop out pada pasien penyakit ginjal kronik dengan CAPD. Simpulan: Usia mulai CAPD ≥ 55 tahun, diabetes melitus, fungsi ginjal sisa ≤ 200 ml dan hipoalbumin merupakan faktor yang berhubungan secara bermakna dengan drop out pasien penyakit ginjal kronik stadium 5 yang menjalani CAPD. Model prediksi kejadian drop out pada pasien penyakit ginjal kronik stadium 5 yang menjalani CAPD berdasarkan faktor prediktor diatas memiliki kualitas kalibrasi dan diskriminasi yang cukup.
Kata kunci: CAPD; drop out, model prediksi.


Background: The total use of PD is only 2-11% of total renal replacement therapy, with technique failure causing PD drop out by 35% annually. Factors associated with Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis (CAPD) dropout in patients with stage 5 chronic kidney disease consist of age, education level, history of peritonitis, exit site and/or tunnel infection, hypoalbumin, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, obesity, hyperkalemia, implantation technique, residual kidney function, and the size of the CAPD unit. Purpose: This study aims to see the effect of age, education level, peritonitis, exit site infection and tunneling, hypoalbumin, hypokalemia, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, obesity, operation technique, decreased residual kidney function, and CAPD unit size on the incidence of drop out in patients with stage 5 chronic kidney disease with CAPD, creating a predictive model for the incidence of drop out in patients with stage 5 chronic kidney disease with CAPD. Methods: This study was a retrospective cohort study using data from patients with stage 5 chronic kidney disease with CAPD at RSUPN dr Cipto Mangunkusumo and RSUD Syamsudin SH for the period January 201 7 to May 2023. Data were taken from medical records, according to inclusion and exclusion criteria. The performance of the development of the drop out prediction model is carried out by determining the calibration value (Hosmer-Lameshow test) and monitoring. Results: A total of 293 patients who met the criteria and could be analyzed were obtained. From the multivariate analysis, it was found that age at the start of CAPD ≥ 55 years old had a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.687 (95% CI 1.095 – 2.598); p=0.018, diabetes mellitus had a HR of 1.497 (95% CI 1.005 – 2.229); p=0.047, residual kidney function ≤ 200 ml had a HR of 1.960 (95% CI 1.349 – 2.846); p < 0.0001, and hypoalbuminemia had a HR of 1.510 (95% CI 1.046 – 2.180); p=0.028, all significantly influencing the occurrence of dropouts in patients with chronic kidney disease undergoing CAPD. Conclusion: Age at the start of CAPD ≥ 55 years old, diabetes mellitus, residual kidney function ≤ 200 ml, and hypoalbuminemia are factors significantly associated with dropout occurrences in stage 5 chronic kidney disease patients undergoing CAPD. The predictive model for dropout occurrences in stage 5 chronic kidney disease patients undergoing CAPD based on the above predictor factors demonstrates moderate calibration and discrimination quality.
Keywords: CAPD; drop out, prediction model.