Tesis

Sistem Skor Harapan Kita sebagai Prediktor Mortalitas dan Morbidtias di Rumah Sakit Pasca Pembedahan Katup Jantung = Harapan Kita Score to Predict In-Hospital Mortality and Morbidity after Heart Valve Surgery.

Latar Belakang: Penyakit jantung katup merupakan masalah kesehatan yang signifikan di Indonesia, dan pembedahan adalah tatalaksana. Berbagai sistem skor telah dikembangkan untuk memprediksi mortalitas dan morbiditas pasca pembedahan, namun sebagian besar dibuat dari populasi dengan karakteristik yang berbeda dibandingkan dengan kondisi di Indonesia. Perlu dikembangkan sistem skor menggunakan populasi setempat. Tujuan Penelitian: Membuat sistem skoring untuk memprediksi mortalitas dan morbiditas di rumah sakit pasca pembedahan katup jantung di rumah sakit jantung dan pembuluh darah Harapan Kita. Metode: Studi prognostik, dilakukan di Rumah Sakit Jantung dan Pembuluh Darah Harapan Kita, pada pasien dewasa yang menjalani pembedahan katup jantung dengan maupun tanpa bedah pintas arteri koroner sejak Januari 2012 hingga Desember 2014. Data dikumpulkan secara retrospektif. Sistem skor dibuat model regresi logistik. Hasil penelitian: Sebanyak 1040 pasien disertakan dalam analisis. Terdapat 68 (6.5%) mortalitas, dan 410 (39.4%) morbiditas. Faktor risiko yang berhubungan dengan mortalitas adalah kelas fungsional, hipertensi, riwayat operasi jantung, gangguan ginjal, disfungsi ventrikel kanan, operasi emergensi, operasi katup serta bedah pintas arteri koroner, dan operasi katup trikuspid. Jenis kelamin laki-laki dan pembedahan katup ganda juga berkaitan dengan morbiditas. Sistem skor mortalitas yang dihasilkan memiliki H-L test p = 0.212; AUC = 0.813 (CI 95% = 0.758 – 0.867); dan memiliki titik potong bernilai 5, memprediksi mortalitas 14% (sensitifitas 72,1%, spesifisitas 75.3%). Sedangkan sistem skor morbiditas memiliki H-L test p = 0.113; AUC = 0.713 (CI 95% = 0.681 – 0.746); dan memiliki titik potong bernilai 5, memprediksi morbiditas 48% (sensitifitas 69,5% dan spesifisitas 60,5%). Kesimpulan: Telah dibuat sistem skor prediksi mortalitas dan morbiditas pasca pembedahan katup jantung dengan atau tanpa BPAK. Sistem skor mortalitas memiliki daya kalibrasi dan diskriminasi yang baik. Sistem skor morbiditas memiliki daya kalibrasi yang baik, dan memiliki daya diskriminasi sedang.
Kata Kunci: Sistem skor, faktor risiko, prediktor, operasi katup jantung, mortalitas, morbiditas


Background: Valvular heart disease remains a significant health problem in Indonesia, and surgery remains as the treatment of choice. Various scoring system available to predict post-operative mortality and morbidity, but most were developed from different population characteristics compare to the condition in Indonesia. A scoring system based on local population is required. Objective: To develop a scoring system for the prediction of in-hospital mortality and morbidity after heart valve surgery at Heart and Vascular Center Harapan Kita Hospital. Methods: This is a prognostic study performed at Heart and Vascular Center Hospital Harapan Kita, toward patients who underwent heart valve surgery with or without coronary artery bypass since January 2012 to December 2014. Data were collected retrospectively. Scoring systems were developed using logistic regression models. Result: 1040 patients were acquired. Mortality and morbidity rate was 68 (6.5%), and 410 (39.4%) respectively. Factors associated with mortality were functional class, history of hypertension, previous open heart surgery, impaired renal function, right ventricular dysfunction, emergent operation, combined heart valve and coronary artery bypass surgery, and tricuspid valve surgery. Male sex and double valves surgery were also associated with morbidity. The mortality risk score has H-L test P value = 0.212; AUC = 0.813 (CI 95% = 0.758 – 0.867); and cut-off point of 5, predicting 14% risk of death (sensitivity 72.1%, specificity 75.3%). The morbidity risk score has H-L test p = 0.113; AUC = 0.713 (CI 95% = 0.681 – 0.746); and cut-off point of 5, predicting 48% risk of morbidity (sensitivity 69.5%, specificity 60.5%) Conclusion: Scoring system predicting mortality and morbidity after heart valve surgery with or without coronary artery bypass graft have been made. Mortality risk score was well calibrated, with good discriminatory power. Morbidity risk score was well calibrated, with moderate discriminatory power.
Keywords: Scoring system, risk factor, predictor, heart valve surgery, mortality, morbidity.