Tesis

Skor Prediksi Major Adverse Cardiac Events Tujuh Hari Pada Pasien Sindrom Koroner Akut = Prediction Score Major Adverse Cardiac Events Seven Days in Acute Coronary Syndrome Patients

Latar Belakang Major Adverse Cardiac Events (MACE) merupakan penyebab utama meningkatnya morbiditas dan mortalitas pada pasien sindrom koroner akut (SKA). Skor prediksi MACE merupakan model yang dapat memprediksi prognosis untuk terjadinya MACE berdasarkan faktor risiko yang dimiliki oleh pasien SKA. Tujuan Untuk membuat skor prediksi sederhana, mudah dikalkulasi dan aplikatif, yang mampu mengidentifikasi pasien SKA dengan risiko terjadinya MACE. Metode Dilakukan penelitian kohort retrospektif pada 1002 subyek pasien SKA yang dirawat di intensive coronary care unit RSCM dalam periode waktu Januari 2010 - Desember 2013. Dilakukan evaluasi terhadap faktor risiko jenis kelamin, usia, riwayat keluarga penyakit jantung koroner, diabetes, hemoglobin, leukosit, kreatinin, asam urat, enzim jantung, tekanan darah sistolik, denyut jantung, henti jantung, deviasi segmen ST dan kelas killip. Hasil Major Adverse Cardiac Events didapatkan pada 112 subyek (9,21%), faktor prediktor jenis kelamin wanita, leukosit, kreatinin, asam urat, enzim jantung, tekanan darah sistolik, denyut jantung, henti jantung dan kelas killip pada analisis multivariat mempergunakan regresi logistik didapatkan berhubungan bermakna dengan MACE dengan RR (95% IK) masing-masing 2.66 (1.35-5.25), 2.06 (1.02-4.16), 2.84 (1.43-5.66), 3.79 (1.90-7.54), 3.26 (1.51-7.05), 3.48 (1.57-7.70), 2.46 (1.20-5.01), 42.04 (18.90-93.51), dan 6.31 (3.1912.50) serta didapatkan akurasi prediksi yang baik dengan nilai area under curve 0,95, 95% IK, 0,93-0,97. Kesimpulan Pada pasien SKA didapatkan probabilitas MACE sebesar 3,6% bagi yang memiliki skor total 0-6 dan 83,5% bagi yang memiliki skor > 6 berdasarkan faktor-faktor prediktor jenis kelamin wanita (skor 1), leukositosis (skor 1), peningkatan kreatinin (skor 1), hiperurisemia (skor 2), peningkatan enzim jantung (skor 1), hipotensi (skor 2), takikardi (skor 1), henti jantung (skor 5) dan kelas killip III-IV (skor 3).
Kata kunci : Major Adverse Cardiac Events, sindrom koroner akut, faktor prediktor, skor prediksi



Background Major Adverse Cardiac Events (MACE) have been known as the cause of increasing morbidity and mortality among acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients. Prediction score have been used as prognostic to prediction MACE based on risk factor in ACS patients. Aim To develop a simple risk score, easily calculated and applicability that can identifies ACS patients with risk for MACE. Methods A cohort retrospective study involving 1002 ACS patients in intensive coronary care unit RSCM from January 2010 through December 2013. Sex, age, family history, diabetes, hemoglobin, leucocyte, creatinine, uric acid, cardiac enzyme, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, cardiac arrest, deviation ST segment and killip class as risk factor for MACE was assessed. Results Major Adverse Cardiac Events was found in 112 (9,21%) of ACS patients, predictor factor woman, leucocyte, creatinine, uric acid, cardiac enzyme, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, cardiac arrest and killip class in multivariate logistic regression analysis were associated with MACE in ACS patients with (RR 95% CI) 2.66 (1.35-5.25), 2.06 (1.024.16), 2.84 (1.43-5.66), 3.79 (1.90-7.54), 3.26 (1.51-7.05), 3.48 (1.57-7.70), 2.46 (1.205.01), 42.04 (18.90-93.51), and 6.31 (3.19-12.50) respectively, and the best predictive accuracy for MACE was obtained by area under curve 0,95, 95% CI, 0,93-0,97. Conclusions In ACS patients we found probability MACE was 3,6% in patients with total score 0-6 and 83,5% for who have total score > 6 based on predictor factor woman (score 1), leukocytosis (score 1), elevated creatinine level (score 1), hyperuricemia (score 2), elevated cardiac enzyme (score 1), hypotension (score 2), tachycardia (score 1), cardiac arrest (score 5) and killip class III-IV (score 3).
Key words : Major Adverse Cardiac Events, acute coronary syndrome, predictor factor, prediction score