Tesis

Uji Validasi Skor HOTEL dalam Memprediksi Mortalitas 24 Jam Pasien Non Bedah di Instalasi Gawat Darurat RSCM = Validation of HOTEL score in Predicting 24-Hour Mortality of Non-Surgical Patients in the Emergency Department of Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital.

Latar Belakang: Kunjungan dan angka mortalitas pasien di Instalasi Gawat Darurat (IGD) semakin meningkat dengan kondisi penyakit yang bervariasi, sehingga deteksi yang cepat dan tepat pada pasien dengan risiko mortalitas tinggi sangat penting. Skor Hypotension, Oxygen Saturation, Low Temperature, ECG Changes, and Loss of Independence (HOTEL) sangat baik dan penting untuk diterapkan pada pasien gawat darurat karena menggunakan variabel-variabel yang mudah dan cepat diperoleh. Namun demikian skor tersebut belum divalidasi di Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menilai performa skor HOTEL dalam memprediksi mortalitas 24 jam pasien non bedah di IGD Rumah Sakit Cipto Mangunkusumo (RSCM). Metode: Penelitian ini merupakan studi kohort prospektif. Subjek penelitian adalah pasien non bedah yang masuk ke IGD RSCM pada bulan Oktober hingga November 2012. Variabel bebas yang dinilai adalah tekanan darah sistolik, saturasi oksigen perifer, suhu tubuh, perubahan elektrokardiogram (EKG), dan kemampuan berdiri tanpa bantuan. Luaran yang dinilai adalah mortalitas dalam 24 jam setelah masuk IGD. Performa kalibrasi dinilai dengan uji Hosmer-Lemeshow. Performa diskriminasi dinilai dengan area under the curve (AUC). Hasil: Terdapat 815 pasien non bedah yang datang ke IGD RSCM selama bulan Oktober hingga November 2012. Sebanyak 804 (98,7%) subjek memenuhi kriteria inklusi dengan mortalitas 24 jam sebesar 30 (3,7%) subjek. Performa kalibrasi HOTEL dengan uji Hosmer-Lemeshow menunjukkan p = 0,753. Performa diskriminasi ditunjukkan dengan nilai AUC 0,86 (IK 95% 0,781; 0,931). Simpulan: Skor HOTEL memiliki performa kalibrasi dan diskriminasi yang baik dalam memprediksi mortalitas 24 jam pada pasien non bedah yang masuk ke IGD RSCM.
Kata Kunci: Gawat darurat, HOTEL, mortalitas, pasien non bedah, validasi.


Background: The number of visit and mortality rate of emergency patients at Emergency Department (ED) have been increasing from time to time. Those patients have wide spectrum conditions. Appropriate identification of the patients with high mortality risk is crucial. The Hypotension, Oxygen Saturation, Low Temperature, ECG changes, and Loss of Independence (HOTEL) score is easy and important to be applied in the ED, however, the score has not been validated in Indonesia. The aim of this study was to evaluate performance of HOTEL score in predicting the 24-hour mortality non-surgical patients in ED of Sakit Cipto Mangunkusumo hospital. Method: This was a prospective cohort study. The research subjects were the nonsurgical patients who admitted to ED of Cipto Mangunkusumo hospital between October-November 2012. We collected systolic blood pressure, peripheral oxygen saturation, body temperature, ECG changes, and loss of independence. Those data were evaluated based on the HOTEL scoring system. The outcome were evaluated in 24- hour after admission (alive or dead). The calibration was evaluated with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The discrimination performance was evaluated with area under the curve (AUC). Results: There were 815 non-surgical patients admitted to the ED between October until November 2012. There were 804 (98,7%) subjects included. The 24-hour mortality rate was 30 subjects (3,7%). The calibration performance with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed p = 0,753. The discrimination performance was shown with the AUC score 0,86 (95% CI 0.781; 0.931). Conclusion: The HOTEL score has a good calibration and discrimination performance in predicting the 24-hour mortality of the non-surgical patients in ED of Cipto Mangunkusumo hospital.
Key words: Emergency department, HOTEL, mortality, non surgical patients, validation